Une voie vers une Europe compétitive, souveraine et décarbonée
Depuis la précédente édition publiée en 2024, le paysage politique et économique mondial a fortement évolué, mettant en évidence la nécessité pour l’Europe de réduire sa dépendance aux importations d’énergies fossiles et son exposition à la volatilité des prix internationaux.
Cette nouvelle édition du scénario Net Zero montre qu’une trajectoire fondée sur l’électrification massive des usages, un mix énergétique décarboné diversifié et une meilleure coordination européenne permet de concilier trois objectifs majeurs :
- renforcer la compétitivité et la résilience européenne ;
- accroître la souveraineté énergétique ;
- atteindre la neutralité carbone à horizon 2050.
Transcription
Retransmission de la présentation
Retrouvez la présentation du scénario Net Zero d’EDF édition 2026, à Bruxelles. Il trace une vision claire de l’avenir énergétique européen et projette une Europe plus compétitive et souveraine, accélérant résolument vers la neutralité carbone malgré un contexte géopolitique et énergétique sous tension. Cette trajectoire optimisée repose sur l’électrification massive des usages et sur une offre énergétique pleinement décarbonée, mobilisant l’ensemble des sources bas carbone.[Version anglaise exclusivement]
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2:33
Hello and welcome to today's your active event with EDF. We're going to be looking at the EDF's net zero scenario. I'm Jennifer Baker. I'll be your moderator today. We will have a presentation and you will have the opportunity to ask questions of our presenters right after that. So, we encourage you to do that and then we will go on into a panel discussion and of course once again for that scenario. There will also be the opportunity to ask questions. Now, the EDF 2050 Net Zero scenario for Europe is going to look at the future.
3:02
We're going to hear a lot about that. There's going to be a full presentation and then we'll talk about the various geopolitical tensions, the energy cost and the really top of- mind concerns that we all have at the moment while we look to the future of Europe's energy. We're looking at how we can create a pathway to a competitive, sovereign, and decarbonized Europe. Now, in order to ask those allimportant questions, you should be able to go to slido.com.
3:29
You can see the QR code there on the screen. , scan that. If you're joining us online, of course, you can type directly into the box on your screen, but if you want, you can navigate on your browser to slid.com and put in the code EDF, and we will try and get to as many of your questions as possible in the time we have. So, for now, I'm going to hand the floor back over to the presentation of the EDF EU net zero scenario to Sha Ray, group chief economist at EDF. And then we will also have Fabrice Noilhan who is executive director of group strategy at EDF and they will also take your questions afterwards. So over to you.
4:15
Thank you very much Jennifer. Thank you all for joining today. So we will start by sharing with you the key results and the key messages we derive from EDF analysis on the pathway towards net zero and more broadly the pathway towards the European energy mix that we think is good for Europe. We already published a scenario it was two years ago on how to attain carbon neutrality by 2050 actually.
4:48
Sorry. Does it work? Yes. Sorry. It's a bit of perfect. Since two years ago, a lot has changed. It is definitely not new to say that in the geopolitical context worldwide, in the macroeconomic context also worldwide, which makes for Europe the world riskier. External risks are on the rise. And especially for energy issues are becoming more complex. Complexity is not new for our sector. We are used to frame the analysis of energy economics around the energy trilmma (?) which is the tension between three conflicting objectives.
5:29
Affordability, sustainability and security of supply. Actually those three objectives are now even more complex and even broader because we are talking about competitiveness, sovereignty and sustainability still in a broader sense. but this is actually what we're going to argue in this presentation. It should help decision making today because the same solutions can actually deliver on those three objectives at the same time. So typically the electrification stone can shoot towards those three objectives those three birds at the same times to make Europe more competitive more sovereign and more fully decarbonized by 2050. So typically our scenario which puts decarbonized electricity at the core of the energy strategy achieves these targets.
6:33
It helps to make Europe more competitive, not only by keeping energy cost in check, but also to keep to make them less vulnerable to energy shocks on world markets. You know, the economy in Europe is more insulated from energy shocks thanks to this pathway, five times more than today. Second, our scenario helps to strengthen sovereignty of Europe because it helps to reduce the imports of fossil fuels by more than 80% between today and 2050. So this is a massive u improvement of energy sovereignty. It is a massive improvement of energy independence. And third, our scenario does achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
7:18
It is still the overarching objective for the EU. Why? Because the cost of climate in action is actually keep on being revised upwards. So we should anchor this objective at the core of our strategy. To do so, we need a system wide vision. We need a system wide analysis. This is what we're going to share with you today to build a consistent and an efficient strategy to achieve those targets. And based on this analysis we will be able to deliver recommendation to share with you and to discuss with you. The four pillars of this strategy are basically written on that slide.
8:09
Two are related to demand which is to consume less energy to electrify more and faster and two are related to supply which is to produce the carbonized power efficiently and to decarbonize the remaining supply of the energy mix. So first let me say a brief word on methodology. So all our all our scenario is based on quantitative modeling of 16 European countries that we chose because of their interconnectedness. So it's not you know exhaustive of the EU. We do have UK within but it makes sense because energy wise those countries are highly interconnected. We do take constraints. So you know it's a realistic scenario because we take into account physibility constraints on resources on behaviours on society in general and we also take breakthrough technologies in into account based on our specific assessments technology by technology of those technologies. We also model the electrics in a very refined way as a Harley time step.
9:07
We do impose our scenario to provide security of supply especially in terms of electricity and we optimize the world energy system based on welfare maximization cost minimization and ensuring resilience of the scenario. So now let's start with the four pillar and so let's start with the first of the four pillar which is consume less energy. In our scenario, we need to drastically reduce final energy consumption, you know, consumption by final users of energy by more than 40% between today and 2050. It's a challenge because you know the trend is actually supporting energy consumption because of economic growth. That's actually good news because of new users such as data-centres.
9:55
So this is the first component you see on the slide is actually increasing energy consumption between today and 2050. So we need to counteract this trend. How? By basically three levels. Sufficiency which is to change of habits and even more importantly in terms of quant quantitative impact by electrification and electrification is already an energy efficiency action. Because when you switch from thermal car to electric vehicle, when you switch from gas boilers to heat pps, when you electrify your industrial processes, you actually save a lot in terms of energy consumption. That's what you see here.
10:32
Third and final lever that we should not forget about it is to actually activate other energy efficiency actions because once you have switched towards electrified processes, you can still optimize your consumption of energy to save energy and save actually money around. So that's the first pillar, to consume less energy as a wall. Second pillar is actually a deep dive on electrification. You know the electrification action we saw to show and to demonstrate that actually it's profitable for the system and individually as early as today. So you know it's not a question of just planning electrification in a in a few years it's actually electrify today to demonstrate that we take the case study of a switch from a thermal car towards an electric vehicle. What you see on the left of the slide is basically what you spend when you use typically a car for your road transportation today 12,000 kilometres a year. Basically, you spend that amount of money before tax.
11:40
So, it's a conservative estimation. You emit two tons of CO2 per year and you imply imports by 8 megawatt hour of fossil fuels that actually we need to import to actually make that use possible. If you electrify this use of transportation actually you divide by two the cost you know so the money you spent on that use you divide by five the emissions you emit so the pollution you actually generate by that use and you divide by more than 10 the importation of fuels you imply by that use.
12:25
So it's massive profitability for the system, you know, for the general interest and individually for the household that actually use that car. Those results are actually robust to the level of decarbonization of the power mix. What I mean by that is what you see on the top right hand of the slide are figures for the European average mix today in terms of power production. What you see on the bottom right of the slide are the figures for carbonized mix for a given European country. What you see is that it's still profitable for that carbonized production mix.
13:06
Now let me move towards the third pillar of the strategy. And so now we are migrating towards supply of energy. We need to act both on the decarbonization of the demand and the decarbonization of the supply of energy. And first and foremost, we need to produce electricity decarbon in a decarbonized way and efficiently. It's a vole challenge because electricity demand is going to double between today and 2050. And it is a composition challenge because we need a diversified mix to be efficient in our power production by 2050. By diversification I mean that there's a deep techno-economic complementarity between power production assets and we need to mobilize somehow all of them in a balanced way. We need variable renewables because they are cost efficient somehow their investment costs are decreasing.
14:00
So this is good in terms of economics and this this is how in our scenario they produce two third of the annual generation by 2050 but it is not enough because they are intermittent. We do not control the variability of their production. So we need to complement them with dispatchable sources of power production namely nuclear energy, hydro power and decarbonized thermal when it will be mature in terms of technology.
14:29
So I would like to make maybe two remarks on that on that slide. First what you see on the slides are shares of power production. It does not mean that all those assets have the same value for the system. What I mean by that is that actually dispatchable assets bring even more value to the system because they are dispatchable. So you might say that it's a minor share of the poor production mix that are brought by dispatchable assets by 2050, but they bring a lot of value to the system. They have a lot of merit to the system.
15:12
And my second remark is about other assets, flexibility assets because you know renewables and dispatchable assets are not enough. You also need storage.
15:18
You need demand side response to address the flexibility needs on the short term time scale you know within the day. And you also need hydro dispatchable assets again to address the needs for flexibility at a longer time scale typically between weeks and between months.
15:46
Final word on grids because you also have a lot of contemplatives with the investment in grids to achieve this efficient cocktail of producing power by 2050. You also need to invest in grids because otherwise grids the assets are getting old and they're also creating bottlenecks because the topology of the electricity system changes the sources of production power and the sources of producing of consuming power are more diffused more dissimilated. So you need to actually renew and adjust the grid by investing into it.
16:31
Fourth and last pillar is about the remaining energy mix. So you know if we succeed in this electrification strategy, we will increase the share of electricity in the final energy mix from 20 23% today towards 64% by 2050. So it's a massive increase but still 64% is not 100%. Which means that in our final energy mix by 2050, we will still have around 40% of our energy consumption that will come from energy vectors other than electricity. And we need to decarbonize those other energy vectors.
17:12
And we will need them. What are those? Heat and decarbonized molecules. And for all of them, you know, especially in decarbonized molecules, you can think of a diversity of them. Bio-molelecules, synthetic molecules, fossil molecules coupled with capture of of carbon, carbon capture in general. They all come with challenges, but we think it's worth it to invest in this decarbonization because we will fully decarbonize our energy mix that way. We will make it competitive and we will make it more sovereign because we will reduce our value we spend on the imports of fossil fuels you know by 80% already decided.
17:59
Last point before giving the floor to Fabrice is to assess the overall economic impact of that strategy. For that we use a pretty intuitive measure which is total energy system cost. What I mean by that measure is basically that we aggregate all the costs incured by making this the energy system work. The cost of producing and buying energy from abroad, the cost of transporting energy, and the cost of consuming energy and investing in new equipment to actually consumee decarbonized energy. Those costs are pretty significant. That's what you see on the left hand side of the slide.
18:39
You know, 840 billion a year today. That's around 4.5% of the GDP of the geographical zone we are considering. Actually this strategy the strategy we are promoting secure additional investment. So this cost is going to increase as the first step that's the first orange brick you see by basically 30% of the current cost because of investment especially in the power system. But this additional cost will be more than offset by the gains we're going to make on the money we spend today on buying so much fossil fuels, oil and gas from abroad.
19:21
You know, and those gains are basically equivalent to 40% of the current system, you know. So it's plus 30% in investment but minus 40% in gains in savings in the exploitation in the OPEX cost of not having to buy fossil fuel anymore and then when you add up you know the additional cost in decarbonized molecules such as H2 in the downstream what we call the downstream the demand on you know investing in new energy consumption appliances, equipment to be fit for this new mix.
20:03
Basically, the total energy system cost is stable between today 20 24 last available data to towards 2040 and for 2040 is a midway milestone for strategy and for our common European strategy. You know, it's a good horizon to assess where we will be there. We will be there. We will actually achieve the European target for carbon emissions because we will be minus 90% of CO2 emissions compared to 2019. So we will check the climate target by 2040. We will keep total system energy cost stable but on top of it we will have an additional massive macroeconomic gain of that strategy.
20:55
Why is that? because we will have converted OPEX spendings towards capex savings and this is a massive macroeconomic benefit because it makes us more resilient but it also creates you know macroeconomic co benefits because comp contrary to spending money to buy voles of oil and gas from abroad when you spend money to invest in two assets that are located in Europe actually you generate additional activity locally, you support local activity, you support local jobs. This is not in those figures. It comes as a top up additional macroeconomic benefit to the strategy. And final word is what remains to be done between 2040 and 2050. The cost actions to transform our energy system will have to be undertaken.
21:45
They will be cost. But hopefully thanks to innovation, thanks to R&D today, we will manage to the risk and to make those cost as low as possible. And even you know in the most conservative scenario that you see on the top right hand of the slide, it is a slight increase in energy cost in terms of billion euros, but as a share of GDP, it is basically stable compared to 2040. You know today it's around 4.5% of GDP. It will be 3.5 in 2040 and we can we can keep it around 3.5% age of GDP as total energy system cost by 2050 if we implement this strategy.
22:28
So the takeaway of this scenario is that you know we should really strengthen our macro economy and our resilience of the European economy as a whole through our energy strategy. Now let me give back the floor to Fabrice to move towards the recommendation we derive from that scenario. Thank you very much for this presentation. I think that we are now at a stage where we need to change our energy system. We need to do that. We have quite a number of things to argue in order to go to a more resilient and competitive energy system and we welcome President Von Lean statement two days ago to go for electrificant strategy
23:36
EDF's recommendation for this transition to electrification and we know that there are non-regret moves to do non- regret moves that can do today we can take decisions today in order to improve the situation in the future in S the recommendations are to size the easiest opportunities to speed up electrification advance nuclear development and deployment coordinated actions at EU level. Our first recommendation is very clear. Start with the most cost effective CO2 amendment costs and start now.
24:21
CO2 amendment costs are a very useful decision tool. They help us choose the actions that we deliver the biggest emissions reductions for the lowest cost. In this graph, solutions are ranked from the cheapest on the left to the most expensive. Some options are even cost negative. They reduce emissions while saving money. This ranking gives decision makers a clear logic to prioritize investment and allocate capital efficiently. And this analysis covers both the end use sectors such as transport, buildings and industry and the decarbonization of the energy itself. And there are three key takeaways from this chart. First on the left there are the non-biners. The main example is electric vehicles.
25:07
They appear as a cost negative option. Lower emissions and lower total cost. Europe must not step back on electric vehicles. Weakening commitments would slow down decarbonization and increase dependence on imported fossil fuels. This group also include energy efficiency and sufficiency measures. Second, we have the low hanging fruits.
25:33
These are mature technologies that still need some support. Clean power generation, electric trucks, heat pps, building insulation and low temperature industrial heat. This can be done if we decide to give some support.
25:56
Finally the most difficult category concern the R2 abate sector steel alini high temperature industrial it will require targeted and significant support innovation and strong R&D support are the key levers in order to achieve the reduction. The second recommendation is to massively accelerate electrification. We are sure that electrification is the backbone of Europe's energy future. It improves competitiveness, reduces dependence on imports, and supports carbon neutrality. Today, electricity represents only 23% of final energy use in the EU. By 2050, we need to be close to 60%. This gap shows how much faster we must move, especially after decades of stagnation. Concretely, electrification means replacing fossil fuel use by with electric solutions.
26:59
Heat pps instead of gas boilers, electric vehicles, instead of combustion engines, electrified industrial processes. These massive shifts will deliver three massive benefits. The first one is a stronger industry and more local jobs. The second one, greater energy sovereignty with fewer fossil fuel imports. And third, CO2 reductions up to 90 to 95% while also reducing total energy consumption. But it will not happen on its own. It requires four actions.
27:38
First, a strong and coordinated European commitment. Second, a dedicated financing tool for electrification and decarbonization. Third, energy taxation that is aligned with our electrification objectives. It shall not be that we tax more electricity than fossil fuels. And for targeted support for the most emitting sectors and above all the action must start now because otherwise we will not reach our targets. Third recommendation is to fully recognize the role of nuclear energy.
28:17
Decarbonized power system needs a diversified energy mix and nuclear is central to it. Nuclear is dispatchable and net zero. It provides reliable electricity 24/7 and complements renewables as demand increases. As electrification grows, flexibility needs increase at all time scales and nuclear stability support system stability and security of supply. It provides also essential system services inertia, voltage control, and frequency stability.
28:54
These services will become even more critical in system with eye shares of renewables that we all support. Nuclear remains a key component of the most cost efficient energy mix as outlined by Charles through slides before. It delivers large voles of low-carbon electricity at competitive cost reaching some 150 megawatt of nuclear capacity in Europe by 2050 essentials.
29:20
New builds and long-term operation will represent more than 75% of its capacity and supporting the nuclear industry strengthen sovereignty to reduce dependence on imports and supports also highly skilled local jobs. The industrial challenges is significant but it is both doable and affordable. To succeed, we must ensure that we have technological neutrality, long-term and predictable contract, and sustained investment in nuclear R&D.
29:59
The last recommendation is to call for stronger European coordination. The energy system must work together around three objectives. The first one is decarbonization, of course, reaching climate neutrality by 2050. Second one, security of supply with well-balanced investment in production and consumption for energy efficiency. And third, cost efficiency because we need to support Europe's economic competitiveness. This require a system wide coordinated approach. This chart shows what happens when countries act individually instead of following a common pathways.
30:36
The result is that we will have higher renewable curtailment, higher system cost and higher public support needs. Lack of coordination will make the power system less efficient, more expensive and may be less reliable. By coordinating the investments, member states can avoid over capacity and significantly reduce the total system cost. Coordination is essential to
31:07
To conclude, as presented by SH Charles in the first slide, the net zero delivers all three strategic objectives for Europe. First one is competitiveness. Europe becomes five times more resilience to high fossil fuel prices. Electrification absorbs prices volatility and protects the economy. Sovereignty fossil fuel imports fall by 85% by 2050 and these resources can be redirected towards investment at the local level.
31:42
Decarbonization net zero reached by acting across all sectors priorizing the most effective solution and supporting innovation where needed. This road map and its resilience to price chuck will give more visibility to companies supporting their competitiveness on the long term. The good news is that Europe already has all the tools, the technologies and the economic logic to achieve this. What is missing is action. Prioritize the most effective abatements. Accelerate electrification. Support nuclear power and act together now. Thank you very much for your attention.
32:28
Thank you indeed, Fabrice. And perhaps Sha, you can come up and you have your mic and we can allow Shell to use the microphones on the podium because there's just a couple of questions from our audience. Yan Ruben is asking why do you put the objective only in 2040 and not before for example in 2030? I mean a brief question the brief answer sorry the pathway goes over all those years we decided to emphasize the 2040 milestone because of the European discussion the European climate target has just been set by the European institutions.
33:09
So we thought it was useful to to basically demonstrate that our scenario does achieve this European target for climate and at the same time on the economics side keeps energy system cost stable. So we thought it was the main message and another question a more broad one from Timo Bertron from the embassy of the of the Netherlands in France saying that in France EDF has been very
33:33
positive in fostering made in France electricity campaigns. Should we export this pride to the made in Europe electricity branding for EU public awareness? Yes, from a political point of view, yes, I think that we need to invest in Europe. We need to invest in our jobs in Europe and at the end of the day, when we are spending hundreds of billion euros abroad to import fossil fuels, it does not benefit to our citizens. We think that the resilience of our economy but also its competitiveness comes from the fact that we will invest locally. And a final question before we go to our panel.
34:16
Cananun from DG Clim has said that the power sector needs to move ahead of others in terms of emissions reduction. How 2030 and 2040 emissions do levels in your pathway square with the EU targets for these milestones for the power system? So we we agree you know today's the power production mix in Europe is actually already well decarbonized almost 70%. So that's actually great today. But your question is totally relevant that we need to be fully decarbonized by 2050. Some of those actions are low hanging fruits in fabric graph.
34:57
So typically you to switch away from coal at least towards gas and even better towards renewables and nuclear and decarbonized way to produce power is a low hanging fruit to just kick out coal from the poor production mix in Europe. And then maybe there will be still additional hard to abate actions even in the power production sector typically for decarbonized thermal power production. You know to for those plants we still need for secretive supply purposes to basically you know provide electricity during PS whether it's demand PS or low supply PS.
35:35
Those plants will have to be decarbonized fully by 2050 but it's costly so for us it's more on this in the second bucket sometimes the the faster the better but it will be costly and costlier than kicking out coal from the colleagues. Well, thank you. We like low hanging fruit, but we'll get into some more thornier issues on the panel. So, thank you very much indeed. And Fabrice, I know you're going to stay with us on the stage here.
36:06
So, we'll introduce people from the far side to get a chance to everyone to get up on stage. We have joining us as well from the German energy the director of electric Germany German energy agency director of electricity Katherinabach. Thank you very much Katherina. Simony Tanya Pietra is senior fellow at Bugal and a specialist in EU climate, energy and industrial policy.
36:37
Dr. Andrea Vesler is a member of the European Parliament and for the purposes of today worth knowing she is in the ITRA committee and finally Antonio Lopez Nicholas is chief economist in DGNER in the European Commission. So let's give us a moment to get that microphone started. So I'll start Andrea with you. Yes, it's here.
37:10
Andrea, let me start with you. , give us your quick initial reaction to the presentation that you've just seen and give us your direction of the travel of your thoughts. Well, first of all, thank you very much for having me today. I think this is a very timely and relevant discussion. You've been mentioning it as well that we're waiting the electrification strategy of the European Commission.
37:33
So, I think it's a very timely discussion we are now having. I'm very grateful for all the data and the perspectives that you've been setting as well as the recommendations that are being set out. first of all, I think one of the core cornerstones of this study is we need to go towards net zero in 2050 and this is a clear commitment that we are following up here in Brussels and also in the European Parliament. One of the second points that I think are really important is electrification will be one of the backbones of the new energy system.
38:15
But what I also find really interesting with this relation between 60 and 40% there will be sectors that we will have hard to abate that will be hard to decarbonize. So that this integration perspective that you also offered in your data to integrate a flexibility storage systemic approach to the energy system is very valuable. Very interesting to see also your recommendation on the cornerstone of nuclear energy. So we will see how this is going to unfold in the European Union as one of the decarbonized folders. One of the reactions that as a lawyer and policy maker I have as well is what I really like is the ambition behind your data. As a policy maker I need to of course always question how we reach that ambition.
38:58
We have a currently contractual setup in the European Union where all of the energy legislation is often based on a legal base that is in the environmental sector or the internal market legal base. And I really think let's be really ambitious in this. If we want to exceed net zero in 2050, let's also think about how we can strengthen energy policy within the treaties. We now have a window of opportunity open with the Hungarian elections having been won before the French elections are taking place. Let's also, and this also goes to the commission, be very ambitious in trying to put energy policies on a very robust systemic resilient energy security level for the future.
39:44
And I think now it's the time to also put the political groundwork in place in order to achieve the objectives that you've set out. So, thank you very much for the data. It's been very useful and I think it's very inspiring as well as a groundwork for the electrification agenda of the European Commission. Well, Antonio, naturally people want the commission to be ambitious, but we live in a in a wider context.
40:06
Set the scene for us and tell us a little bit about your thinking within DGN. Yeah, thanks a lot for the invitation to EDF. Happy to be here tonight rather to today the day the day has been long so far. So it's the second energy crisis in in four years we are going through. I think that's very important to keep in mind and I think we are like suffering our dependence on imported fossil fuels. So fossil fuels are not getting rid of forced fuels is not a question of decarbonization any longer. It's a question of security of supply and competitiveness.
40:14
40:51
If we look at the at the numbers at the increase of our import bill since the war started, I mean we've spent an additional 40 sorry 23 billion in one and a half months of unimported for fuels. This is half a billion a day that we can that we could have used for completely different purposes. So it's clear that the energy transition is the long-term solution to this crisis to make Europe more resilient and more independent. And our numbers clearly point in this direction. I mean if we look at the climate target plan and I think the numbers from the study of EDF are not a million miles away from where we are trying to go.
41:35
So I mean we are speaking about tripling our renewables deployment and decarbonizing our energy system with renewables together with with nuclear doubling our electrification rates from the current 23% that we saw in in the slide of FBI that which is stagnating for the last five to six years even before to 45% in in 2040. Reduce consumption by one-third and of course increasing flexibility so that we can have a power system that works and in reality if
42:15
we look at the numbers the energy transition works I mean we can argue that Europe competitiveness has worsened after the 2022 crisis compared to the US and China and this is true this is because of the increase price of fossil fuels but when we look at independent individual member states. We see a very variet picture and we see generally that those member states relying heavily on clean energy renewables plus nuclear deliver wholesale energy prices
42:54
and this delivers increased competitiveness for the economy. So this is, I think the solution and the way to go and if you've heard the also mentioned by Fabric the statement of President Mandelion on Monday it goes completely in in in this direction accelerating clean energy fast tracking the negotiations of the grids package going for more electrification and definitely increasing investments because we should not lose track of the fact that we are investing more or less half of what we should invest to deliver our energy and climate goals. So we should increase and double this investment rate to be in the range of 660 billion euros of annual investments on the NA transition and this is absolutely crucial if we want to deliver the goals we want to deliver.
43:54
Thank you. , Simony, give us your initial analysis to set the scene. You've had a chance to have a look at the slides, I think, as well. Thank you. Yes, thank you so much. And again, thank you for the invite and as a researcher is reassuring to see these clear scenarios and I think this is very much in line with what we are thinking as well because the direction for a fossil fuel poor continent like Europe I think is crystal clear. Electrification, clean electrification is the only way forward not only to meet
44:27
our climate targets but really to boost our competitiveness and security. Just to add one number on also the current situation, if you look at a scenario where the gas price doubles the average level of last year, Europe will have to spend 100 billion more to import gas over the next 12 months in order to secure our supplies. Yes, the transition is costly as Charles has shown in this slide at the end. But from an economic a pure economic perspective, investing in capex is extremely different from burning cash in importing fossil fuels to the benefit of those few countries that that of course produce them with all the dependency that creates.
45:12
And I think that u it is crystal clear in the current situation that we just need to accelerate the roll out of electrification which has been stocked as we have seen for a decade in Europe and I think it's astonishing one of the most astonishing charts in the global energy transition I think is the comparison of the electrification rate development in Europe and in China.
45:38
I think we need to ask ourselves why are we not progressing and why electrification is only happening in our debates in our speeches but not in the real world out there and I think the current situation once more gives us also insights about how real all of this is if take two different countries in Europe today Spain on the one hand and Italy for example on the other and look at the electricity prices.
46:08
The average electricity price for Spain this year is going to be around 60 65 euro per megawatt hour, which is half of the average electricity price expected in in Italy. In Italy, gas sets the price of electricity 90% of the time. In Spain, after the huge buildout of wind and solar, they went down from 75 to around 15% of the time. So that's clea a clear illustration about the need the urgent need to to reduce the role of gas into the into the power sector.
46:42
That's the only way we have to really decouple gas from electricity prices and I think any kind of different intervention will not solve our structural problem. For this to happen, we should be very cautious not to kill the instruments that are there to mobilize this this change. And I in particular think about the ETSs.
47:09
If there is one reason why the the power sector is the success story of the European decarbonization story so far is also because we had a strong ETSs in place over the last year that delivered a very important switch away from coal and of course also all the subsidies we have put in place over time to renewable energy helped a lot. We need to look into replicating this success story of the electricity sector into the other sectors including transport, buildings
47:33
and for that to happen we should not water down the provisions we currently have in place like we have recently done with the 2035 target on I think electric vehicles because that would be detrimental to the confidence that the market players out there have out there when it comes to the needed acceleration of the electrification in these sectors.
47:56
Thank you, Katherina, your opening thoughts and then we'll get on to the questions of price shocks and how to absorb them. Okay. Well, thank you very much for the presentation. It is really really interesting for me because as the German energy agency, we're supporting our federal ministry for energy in developing what they call a system development strategy.
48:16
though is similar similarly based on scenarios to give a vision of where energy infrastructure built out should go not only for electricity but also for gas for hydrogen for CO2 and in preparing for today I looked a little bit at the similarities and differences between our modeling which is also EU wide and the and your results and I'm really pleased to see that there's a lot of similarities So it's already been mentioned I don't want to repeat it but of course electrification as the key strategy renewables as a key strategy efficiency we don't talk about it a lot but also a key pillar all that is exactly you know what we also see in our analysis and what is part of the German strategy also on the hard to abate sectors the innovation we still need there a little bit of uncertainty which solution exactly will come out in the end carbon caption storage the the e- fuels that is all very similar. Of course, there are also differences and I know whenever France and Germany talk about energy policy, the elephant in the room on nuclear we obviously have lower estimates and that is for Germany
49:34
of course a political decision that in the modeling we sort of integrate that. So of course there's no nuclear buildup in Germany but for the other countries I would asse I haven't looked into the details of your numbers but I would asse it's about cost assptions that are different and on the flip side of that and I thought that was quite interesting you have a little bit less onshore wind and that would also be something I would be interested to learn more about is that more an issue of acceptance that you don't see as much for onshore wind or is that a cost question. And then we both noticed there is a more limited role for hydrogen than we have in our scenarios which is of course driven by our specific need in Germany to cover the last bit of electrification and the famous dungul fl which we now still will build new gas plants but at some point that also needs to be decarbonized. Hence the more important role of hydrogen in our energy policy vision than in what I've seen from your side. But I want to emphasize again the big pillars are very similar and I think that's encouraging.
50:49
Well, let me stay with you Katherine and start with a big broad question that's just to and we'll get into more detail but is in principle an electrified EU less sensitive to price shocks? Yes, I think that was very clearly stated on the panel. I mean the shift from capex from opex cost to capex investment gives you way more security on what to expect in terms of energy costs and
51:22
I think that is I mean yeah like everyone stated would be a huge boost to our competitiveness to our planning security for every every industry where energy costs are a key sort of price component or a key sort of ingredient of what they do that would help them to know, you know, I can expect that to stay stable and not experience as we do right now these huge bolts where then we try to react very quickly often doing things that are not helping long term just because the social pressure is so big to react. it would be really good if if we could escape that. So full yes. Antonio, perhaps you can weigh in on this one as well and and how we insulate ourselves against these shocks. And yes, the answer is yes, definitely. I mean, electrification will help us to insulate against price shocks. But we will need to do more things apart from electrification.
52:15
I mean we will need to decarbonize our energy mix completely so that there is no reliance or there are there is little reliance on fossil fuels and gas is setting the price of the electricity market for less hours because otherwise the gas prices will be translated to the final consumption by electrification and I think this is very important to do in terms of accelerating clean energy but also flexibility. If I give you a nber I mean we've mentioned that clean energy is 72% of the generation mix.
52:58
So means that non clean energy for fuels is 28% of this generation mix in the EU now but this 28% sets the marginal price of the electricity market for more than 50% of the time. So generally this happens when the sun sets in the in the evening. Then solar production goes down and then gas sets the price in in many hours. And this is something we have together with electrification we have to work on expanding clean energy and on expanding flexibility and storage to make it happen. Andrea, let me let's stay with this idea of talk about electrification but about how we want Europe to be independent, decarbonized and competitive whilst also making sure that there is some security, some reliability. where is the nuance? How should we approach it? Well, I've been listening very carefully. I think there's one point that we should also take into account. We shouldn't look at energy just in a silo.
54:00
So I've been hearing Fitia saying you know it's an issue to water down the targets in the automotive industry for 2035 but it's not just about the dependencies and critical raw materials. It's about strategic autonomy. I've myself been in Valencia when we had the power cut the other year. And yes it was good to have some mobility that was still being faced on molecules. So we have to be very careful about in 2035 not being entirely dependent on a battery ecosystem from China. So what we need to do is when we build an energy system that's electrified to also make sure that we build the ecosystems that we need to supply our infrastructure, our products, our industry with home grown with our own products and making us as far as possible independent from critical raw materials that are necessary for electrification in Europe. So we have to look into the broader picture and not just focus on electrification no matter what and disregarding the dependencies we create on other areas.
55:01
Electrification but it's also Simony is electricity the solution or is the answer more nuanced? Yeah maybe building exactly on this point I think that's of course very clear. You know, I think we cannot famously shift from one dependency to another. But it is also true that if we manage to put in place sensible industrial policy, we can make tangible serious results when it comes to this. Maybe part of the story as we all know is also partnering with China when it comes to attracting FDIs in Europe for the manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles. And I think what we have seen with the proposed industrial accelerator act also goes in this direction. You know the at the end of the day after a lot of ideological fights I don't think we have ended up with this proposal building a wall around European
55:58
borders I think we remain very much open to the Chinese investments into clean technologies because as a matter of fact we have a lot to learn from from a country that has built the frontier in the technological innovation of technologies like batteries so like it or not, I think we are now in a situation where tech transfer is something that we need to try to engineer and I think that the conditionality that rightly we now propose can be an important element to try to have a more positive story around that. Having said that, even if you move assembly or even the manufacturing of components in Europe, of course, we are still dependent on the under pinning critical raw materials and for that I think the diversification strategy can only be to work with the other middle powers out there, right?
56:48
I think that's crystal clear that we are not going to diversify away just looking inside at Europe and what is our mining and refining capacity. we need to partner with others and that's of course maybe easier to be said than done but it's probably the only the only way forward but having said that I think the what you said Charles the top up know that the transition brings which I think is actually today the real engine of this agenda at least in Brussels which is the industrial dimension and the manufacturing possibility I think is the important part of the story right.
57:20
I mean we are facing basically an industrial revolution we want to be part of this and let's recall that most of our manufacturing in Europe is carbon intensive is particularly I think at the energy intensive industry of course is related to an old model. So either we change and we manage to foster this transformation toward cleaner products and cleaner solution or we might end up in Europe from a macroeconomic perspective in 10 to 20 years 20 years having a serious problem when it comes
57:52
to job creation and economic competitiveness at large. So I think that's the need no that was a bit the center of the drag report to reconcile the carbonization story with the competitiveness because for what is the state of the economy in Europe we don't have much alternative I'm going to come back to the question of sovereignty and technologies in a moment but I want to remind everyone that we are also taking your questions so you can use slido you can go to slido.com and put in EDF and we will get your questions there or you can scan the QR code and put them to our panelists Fabric let's take this opportunity for you to react to what you've heard from the colleagues on the panel. I'm quite an optimistic guy. So I'm very pleased to see that we all share the same the same path the same analysis of the situation today. It might not have been the same case 10 years ago. I see I see that. So after two energy crisis as you rightly outlined we see that we are vulnerable.
58:51
We know what we need to do in order to bring these vulnerabilities down and we all know that it goes through electrification. What we have brought on the table today is the industrial perspective. We can build a system that is costwise more or less equivalent to the system that we have today.
59:20
As Charles said, it can it is even more affordable in terms of GDP share and it will be decarbonized and it will be sustainable from an economic perspective. It will help the competitiveness of our industries. So at the end of the day we are fully confident that it can be implemented. And I think we were you were asking a question about targets in 2040. We know that there are some actions that we can take today and these actions I think we all agree on them in order to boost the resilience of our electric industry but at the end of the
1:00:05
day boost the resilience of the European economy. So I'm optimistic because we we know that we will move. We know what is the target. The target is shared at global global level. We are waiting for the electrification strategy from the European Commission in a few weeks time and I think I put a little bit of pressure but I think it will pave the way to a better energy system and a better economy for the EU at the end for them. Well, Simone raised the spectre as Andre already about sovereignty.
1:00:53
So let me I mean it's and to all of you really. How do we align this competitiveness with sovereignty and with climate neutrality? let me start Antonio with you. What is the best plan for a coordinated EU strategy even giving that there are differences between member states because we don't want to defossilize and then suddenly find we're still reliant on buying all our clean tech from China or somewhere else that with outside the EU borders. I think there is no silver bullet on that. But we clearly need more cooperation. I mean more cooperation across the EU, more cooperation with member states as we are doing these days with the energy crisis.
1:01:31
We need a more system approach on how we evolve towards a decarbonized a resilient and sovereign energy system. This is what we are trying to do with the different legislative initiatives we place. I mean with industrial accelerator act and previous initiatives but also this is the thinking we are trying to bring forward with the 2040 energy and climate package and this is something we are preparing for the end of the year in the context of that package. One of the the things we're doing is something called energy system needs assessment.
1:02:10
Have the enact initiative there we are looking at the energy system across the board looking at the at the different needs in terms of grids in terms of flexibility in terms of clean energy so that we can have a more coordinated approach a clear approach also for investors when moving forward. And of course all these yeah all these sovereignty related questions are very much important in in in our thinking as well as affordability and obviously the decarbonization and the thinking in the parliament on what's coming up.
1:02:52
I think one point is clear there is no silver bullet but then we have always had different goals that we were trying to achieve within the energy system. So this is not new. We've always been balancing various goals with the energy system. What is new is that the triangle of goals that we were setting in the energy system now has a fourth goal and that's sort of the sovereignty and resilience issue which has to be newly balanced. And I think what we see is that for the last five years the green deal and sustainability has been an overarching interest and now we have to rebalance and think how this works together
1:03:25
but the second observation that I have in this regard regardless of the objectives is that to us it feels like there is a lot of things that are being you know pushed into parliament pushed into the political discourse pushed into the member states for implementation. But what we need is more maybe coherency in the approaches. It still sounds like a little bit of silo. So if I take the grits package, there's a lot on permitting in there now. But if you take the environmental omnibus, there is something on permitting as well.
1:03:55
There is something about balancing these interests. I've been hearing that there might be a permitting omnibus coming out this year. So there is all of the same issues that are then being done in a sort of sectoral approach, but then there is horizontal approaches coming in. And I think this is one of the major structural issues that we right now have on a on a top- down level.
1:04:15
What we see the European Union moving towards is from economic policy to economic state craft. But when you look at the pieces of legislation they're pushing out, it's still economic policy. And I think what Europe has to move into balancing the various objectives is more economic statecraft in terms of what do we want to achieve for Europe? How from this vision do we go down to policy analysis and not push out a strategy here and a strategy there?
1:04:48
There is an affordable energy strategy last year. It hasn't changed any price level in the member states. Citizens are struggling and we need to make sure that people don't lose trust in all of the thousands of initiatives and strategies we're seeing in Brussels. Well, we hear the same issues come up again. This isn't even the first time today on this stage that someone has brought up permitting as a as a bottleneck. but Katherina, let me bring you in and perhaps your thoughts on that question, Jenna, but also the EU proposal on the EU grids package.
1:05:11
Yes, exactly. I mean the grid, we haven't talked a lot about it today, but it is one of the key bottlenecks that we're facing. So I think on electrification, it's no longer it used to be, but it's no longer the question of cost of these vehicles or availabilities of models. Same for heat pps. But one key element that comes up now I don't at least in Germany more and more is the question of grid access and the difficulties that especially the distribution grid operators have in keeping up with the speed of the
1:05:43
electrification going on and so that is that is one element the distribution grids for a European perspective and you've talked about regional cooperation the strengthening the internal energy market for electricity is also sort of a key element of making this transformation cost efficient. So we think that interconnectors should be a key priority and so we very much welcome the grids package and the efforts that are in there to make that a priority. But I also feel that it's not only it's about following up, it's about the implementation. So and one element to propose one solution that we've been actually accompanying is for the North Seas for example we helped the government host the North Seas smit where the Norse countries came together
1:06:43
and talked about the offshore projects and how they can work together on them to make it more efficient. how they can combine offshore development with grid development in so-called hybrid projects where you link one offshore turbine to two countries or to a different country to make it more cost efficient and I think these kind of regional nuclear that we have in Europe are one way of really getting from strategy to implementation so I think that's a key element in going forward well I mean I I saw a wonderful analogy this week with a prop of a Rubik's cube in explaining how we attempt to do this. We have seven sovereignties on one face, but by the time we get that fixed up, all the other faces are all mixed up.
1:07:32
So trying to create a solution that works on all different facets is a challenge. I'm one phased by the commission. But Simony, I'd like your thoughts on really what is the best way to go about getting this sort of coordinated response. Thank you for the question because indeed I think this coordination dimension is very important and you had no your point about the need for greater European level coordination in these slides.
1:07:56
I think that's very important also when it comes to the estimation of the investment needs because we basically have two possible ways forward here. Either we basically proceed in this electrification journey from a predominant national perspective which is more or less what we are currently doing where each country does of course its own system development. Yes, we coordinate a little bit in Brussels, but you know what emerges is a little bit a patchwork of 27 different systems and I think the NCP's process I mean I fully endorse the principles and the idea but of course we see that this is still predominantly taken as a sort of bureaucratic in the box exercise for from many governments when it comes to sending to Brussels yet another yet another docent.
1:08:52
So I think we are not there yet when it comes to a stronger integration of our energy policy. Of course, article 194 of the treaty and the functioning of the EU is of course underpinning this situation the facto but as you said at the beginning know I think we should be a bit more open also about structural change and if there is one way to make
1:09:13
this transition cost competitiveness cost competitive in Europe is by having greater degree of of coordination which means coordinating the infrastructure development which means having a strategic planning. So I think the grits package there goes in the right direction at least to have a European level planning that can be used as a benchmark also for the national development and that might help fundamentally lowering the cost of capital which is going to be a key determinant when it comes to this transition given the capex intensity of the transition in itself. Now when you have this kind of discussion with the member states there is one issue that comes up prominently which is the lack of trust. You can only go down a coordinated European
1:10:05
coordinated route if between the member states there is trust to join forces and there is trust that you know what countries are saying and are planning will actually be developed and will not change every election and I think that's the key problem we have politically to face how to build trust between the European countries if we don't manage to do this we might end up in a situation where we overspend where we overbuilt, where we overspend, when where we have a lot of redundancy around Europe and we do not have all the efficiency maximization that we can get also through the right interconnections in the right place where the renewable energy endowments for example or the nuclear capacities are Antonio I'm going to bring you in on that but I'll also take a question from from Marian in the audience asking will the investment booster announced by Vander Lion be launched soon and what about the Industrial Decarbonization Bank considering the financing schemes needed. , but I'll let you respond to that if you want, but also I see you taking notes to react.
1:11:04
Okay. No, I mean on this, I think we are following up on many of these things following the statement of of our president on Monday. There will be a communication ahead of the informal meeting of leaders next week where we will follow up on all these things. So you will allow me that I will not steal the show from my president but perhaps a couple of remarks on what has been said.
1:11:35
Indeed I mean implementation and enforcement is absolutely crucial. I mean it's something perhaps not sexy for everyone but we have I think fantastic pieces of legislation that have been agreed for example on permitting or on other parts of the NA transition that when implemented at member state level bring huge benefits in terms of prices and in terms of acceleration of the transition.
1:12:03
So I think that's a must if we want to move forward and this is something on which we need to build. Second, I mean more coordination clearly this is this is this is a must and we are trying our best. The grids package clearly is one of the pieces where we are trying to ensure coordination in in grids deployment to make planning more joint up
1:12:30
but we are also having a number of elements in terms of enhancing political cooperation with member states and the NA union task force where we meet member states very frequently to discuss about many factors and to try to solve bottlenecks in the in the in the NA transition. It's from our perspective an essential elements element to be on the same page and to coordinate and to exchange with member states and in that regard there is one upcoming element that will contribute to enhance coordination and to to increase investments and
1:13:04
I think it's been mentioned by you simony it's the national energy and and climate plans that I mean we have it now until 2030 now there is going to be a revision of the governance regulation by the end of the intention is make those NCPs, those energy and climate plans, investment plans, plans that are more coordinated across the EU that are able to to trigger the necessary investments to help us to double the investment base in the NA transition.
1:13:11
1:13:35
So, we've got a few quite specific questions I want to get through before we do a wrap-up. Time is flying today.
1:13:41
Firstly, intermittency of renewables and that's a challenge. What are the solutions including nuclear curtailment, demand response and batteries that can help tackle that? Andrea, do you want to tackle that one?
1:13:53
I mean, this is I think the core question. we just heard about you know how gas is still driving in in the moments where we do not have renewables available the prices and the electricity price. So this is one of the core elements that we need to focus on and this is about building flexibility in the system.
1:14:12
Having a diversity of storage system but also having a decentralized system where you have decentralized storage options but eventually this also means infrastructure and this is one of the core challenges that we have to build several infrastructures in parallel. We have the grits on the one hand side but then we have the hydrogen backbones that we need to build on the other hand side which is parts of the grids package with the highways that we're seeing but this will not be sufficient and in Germany we are building the hydrogen backbones luckily
1:14:42
and we have been able to derisk the infrastructure investments in this area and I think this is a model that we should use in the European Union because hydrogen will have an important role to play as a storage molecule as well. So we have to think about infrastructure building de-risking investments into the storage options and about building a system where flexibility is built in as one of the very core elements into the provision of the electricity in Europe.
1:15:12
Simone ETSs has been the backbone of EU decarbonization for years. So we were talking about this all morning here at your active. ETS1 is under debate. ETS2 still on the menu. How should we tackle this in the coming months? Well, I think that you know the year didn't start well for the ETSs.
1:15:31
I think we had a very contentious discussion around this instrent right on the way to the Antwerp meeting and then the leaders retreat the week after. I think with the European Council of March, the conversation has entered you know a more sober and in my view pragmatic and safer dimension. I think the ETSs is not today as we speak as under attack as it was at the beginning of the year.
1:16:06
I think there was a lot of debate and activity that allowed also leaders probably to appreciate more what the system has achieved and how we can make it best in the future. So turning the cup and trade for into a real cup and investment system and for that to happen in my view the crucial element is looking at the revenues. I mean since its inception the ETS has generated something like 280 billion euros in revenues retain at the national level because that's where as we know most of the revenues go and what I honestly find u astonishing is the fact that we really do not know
1:16:45
in a transparent manner how these revenues are used in the at the national level. Most of them of course go into the general budget and they are not necessarily used for the decarbonization purposes that member states are actually encouraged to make use of. So let's see if with the upcoming review of the ETSs in the smer some more conditionality can be attached to the utilization of these revenues. But I think that would be very important because it's fair that those that pollute pay for this pollution.
1:17:22
But I think you know in the good economic theory you need to have carbon dividends. So you need to give back these this money to pollute in order for them to reduce their pollution by investing and basically steering the clean industrial transformation that we want to steer in in Europe. So that's a a very important pot of money those that
1:17:44
I would say that we need to make sure is devoted to the energy transition to the industrial decarbonization that as we know will be difficult to achieve hard art hard to abate sectors but that's a fundamental financial tool to use also considering that if you look at the new EU budget we don't have much for for climate when it comes to to the allocation because of course we have competing priorities and if you look for example at the upcoming competitiveness fund much goes into defense way less into climate. Exactly.
1:18:12
Because we we have the ETS so we need to make a good use of it. Katrina a question sort of from the point of view since you're from from Germany. You know we've heard it from ADF from the French side and the choices on the on the opposite sides of the Ryan River are sometimes somewhat different.
1:18:30
I see a question from John in our in our audience saying should Germany restart some of its nuclear assets or at least not remove them? , if Germany invest in other nations nuclear buildout, would that help its economy and stability? I mean, essentially, I think how do we make the best of all worlds for the best of everyone? Well, I think that is a political decision. It's not for me to answer.
1:18:54
I would I see that more in your field because you know we we're supporting government and we're working with the legislation that we have which is so far that the phase out is complete and not to be restarted but obviously if there is a different political decision one can take that into account. I would say because that was your starting point on the on the two systems on both sides of the Rhine.
1:19:23
I think complementarity is a good thing. Right. So we've seen it in in the recent past in 22 when there was few several nuclear reactors were under revision and there was a very hot summer. We could export to France and then obviously now that we have reduced our coal fleet we are importing in many hours from France and it's just because it's cheaper so everyone profits.
1:19:54
I think overall what we really need is a communication a charm offensive for the internal energy market. I sometimes think that people do not appreciate enough what benefit it brings us every single day.
1:20:14
And one thing that I'm worried about is that you know I don't know if you've heard about the interconnector to Sweden that wasn't built because Sweden and I don't want to I know that there are difficulties on our side as well but there is in a few cases a return to a view that is more centred on the interest of one single nation rather than seeing the value added of EU cooperation and solidarity.
1:20:41
And I think that is where France and Germany can play a good role in showing that even though you are taking different energy policy decision and I have to take have to say they are not that different right we established that the key core elements are very similar can bring complementarity and can bring additional added value.
1:20:48
1:21:00
I will take these last two audience questions before I ask everyone for a wrap-up but anyone is free to answer these.
1:21:06
Danuta Sluska is asking what about nuclear fusion? What role do you see for that in the future electricity mix given that commercialization efforts are gaining speed? And Alina Orinau is saying that how could the public and private entities together better support the green transition of energy intensive industries? Would anyone like to tackle either of those? Andrea, I'm fine. I mean we are working at.
1:21:32
I've seen on a fusion energy strategy right now in the European Commission and and rightly so and from a parliamentarian perspective we very much pushed for it. I mean this has the potential to solve many of the energy issues in Europe but not tomorrow and not in 10 years-time. So let's keep focusing on this. I think Europe has been very successful.
1:21:55
They have invested massively in Ether already. So if you don't pursue that path, there will be a lot of sunk costs and investment containments that we shouldn't do. So it's important that we keep down on this track, but it won't solve our problems tomorrow or the other day. so let's be very realistic on it. The same with the SMR strategy. Nice. It's great. We need to follow up on this, but it won't solve our short-term problems. When it comes to private to public,
1:22:21
I think this is a very crucial element. because what we're seeing right now is that the private investments don't go the direction they would love to see them going. Whether it's heat pps that have stalled, whether it's electric vehicles that have stalled and I think this is a very important lever, how we have to mobilize private investments and take the people along.
1:22:46
And that's one of the pleas that I really loved from the national German energy agency about more European. And I think this is the storyline and the rhetoric that we have to also tell people back home and that that this is a very worthwhile investment that counting on Europe and the energy system is the way forward and that falling back to national systems won't help anyone. and that this is a pathway that we go together citizens, politics, industry, the regulators. I think we can do it.
1:23:11
I think that almost feels like a sming up but I'm going to give everyone a chance to give the give their final thoughts. You know we're talking about what is the pathway. So in a nutshell if you if you want a key takeaway for today
1:23:22
Antonio what's what is that pathway? I mean for me the pathway is that we need a system approach moving forward.
1:23:29
I mean we need more much more clean energy generation but we need much more grids and a better use of those grids more flexibility more electrification more energy efficiency and if we put all these ingredients together as a part of a menu with more coordination across the EU and accelerated investments we will make it happen and deliver on our goals which are again security of of supply competitiveness and decarbonist
1:24:00
Andrea to build on your impassion support of nuclear always grown in crisis and you mentioned it before we have two massive crisis that we are living through over the last couple of years and
1:24:11
I think this is the moment to grow now I think we must make it happen and we will make it happen and to see how aligned we are makes me very optimistic that we will make it happen we will but it's complex right it is but I mean many things are complex and still we we achieve them right so I think the this debate is possibly less contentious and less ideological than it was before 2022. I think the energy crisis also brought a certain degree of pragmatism into the conversation in Europe. I think we now more or less agree on the fundamentals.
1:24:47
Yes, there will be countries that like nuclear more than others and so on and so forth. But I mean in this diversity, we can build a great added value in Europe.
1:25:00
The important point to me is the coordination is the attempt to build a truly European system because as we have seen over the last few years, this is the only way for Europe to be resilient to share scarce resources as we have seen after the gas shock in 22.
1:25:20
And I think this is also the only way to make the transition cost effective for all. And by the way, if we manage to link this energy union with a strong and workable industrial policy, at that point this really becomes an engine of growth.
1:25:38
I know that this sounds bond one mandate. but I still think then the green growth strategy is something that we can still pursue in in Europe. Katherine, your thoughts, president? Well, I would say I mean I echo all of these thoughts and I would add that it is also a modernization agenda.
1:25:57
I mean I focus on infrastructure mostly and especially for the electricity grid something we haven't talked about today is that digitalization is obviously also a key element for making that work for dealing with the intermittency for coordinating all those new electric users and producers in an efficient way
1:26:17
and if we succeed in that and that is a huge challenge I don't want to you know reduce that but once we have succeeded we have a really moderate system. And many parts of our system need renewal anyway like because they've been built in the big you know years of build up of infrastructure in the 60s and the 70s and so let's take that chance and build a real system of tomorrow rather than just renewing you know a system from the 70s.
1:26:50
I think that's our big chance in here. Well, we talk here in Brussels. We talk all the time about the digital transition and the green transitions, but at the end of the day, it's not just about phrases that we use here in the bubble. It's about the real way of life and the real quality of life for European citizens. , Fabric, I'll give you a final word to wrap up. , thank you very much. I think it was a very interesting discussion. , for me, I think I have three messages.
1:27:19
First one is around trust and long-term view. I think we all share the fact that we need to give to our industry to our citizens a long-term view so that they can choose what they do and the fact also that integrated systems are less expensive.
1:27:38
This is exactly what we want to prove in our study. The second point is that the energy transition will be profitable but it needs financing because we need to invest now and we will have a benefit there after it's like for electric cars.
1:27:56
Electric cars they will be profitable the long term but you need to buy an electric car to have this benefit. So we need to find to think about the tools to help us finance this transition. And maybe my final word is around the image of the Rubik's cube that you used and my view is that there is a consensus now it can work together.
1:28:20
There is a solution is the Rubik's cube and the solution today is electrification. We need the rules. So it's easy to make a Rubik's cube if you follow the guide on the internet. So we need the analysis. We provide one analysis. There are quite a number of other analysis that will help us find and we know that there are no regret moves that we can do today and that's maybe a final word.
1:28:50
Let's start the first side of the Rubik's cube and let's start it now. Start with the green side first. How about that? Okay. Thank you all so much and thank you for your questions as well as you can check out the full report the EDF net0ero scenario online and of course
1:29:08
you can find out more about your active events by going to events.yearactive.com. But that's it for today. Have a great afternoon.
La transition énergétique repose sur deux leviers clés : l’électrification des usages et l’amélioration de l’efficacité énergétique, soutenues par une démarche de sobriété dans les comportements et les usages.
L’électrification des transports (via le véhicule électrique), des bâtiments (via les pompes à chaleur) et de l’industrie permet dès aujourd’hui de réduire les émissions, de limiter les importations d’énergies fossiles et de renforcer la résilience économique européenne, tout en étant d’ores et déjà économiquement compétitive.
La hausse de la demande électrique devra être couverte par un mix de production électrique décarboné avec en premier lieu les énergies renouvelables y compris l’hydraulique, la production nucléaire, et le thermique décarboné.
Ce mix tire parti de la complémentarité entre les énergies renouvelables intermittentes et les sources pilotables comme le nucléaire, l’hydraulique et le thermique décarboné.
À l’horizon 2050, l’électricité devrait devenir largement majoritaire dans le mix énergétique, mais d’autres vecteurs énergétiques resteront indispensables et devront être pleinement décarbonés, notamment la chaleur et les molécules de type hydrogène et biocarburants.
La décarbonation offre à l’Europe une opportunité majeure de création de valeur et de souveraineté, en transformant les dépenses liées aux importations en énergies fossiles en investissements durables et locaux, notamment dans l’électrification et le système électrique européen.
Cette réorientation vers l’électricité permet de réduire massivement les émissions du système énergétique tout en en maitrisant les coûts.
Les derniers pas vers la neutralité carbone concernent les secteurs les plus difficiles à décarboner et nécessitent le déploiement de nouvelles solutions technologiques. Renforcer une approche système, investir dès aujourd’hui dans l’innovation et encourager la coordination à l’échelle européenne sont essentiels pour contenir les coûts et réussir une transition durable et compétitive.
Prioriser sans délai les actions offrant le meilleur rapport coût‑bénéfice en matière d’abattement du CO₂, en concentrant les efforts et incitations là où les coûts sont les plus faibles et l’impact immédiat, tout en investissant dès aujourd’hui dans l’innovation pour accompagner la décarbonation des secteurs les plus difficiles. Les investissements liés à l’électrification figurent parmi les plus efficaces et les moins coûteux pour réduire les émissions.
Accélérer l’électrification des usages afin de renforcer la compétitivité européenne, soutenir l’emploi et la création de valeur en Europe, réduire la dépendance aux importations fossiles et progresser rapidement vers la neutralité carbone.
Poursuivre le développement du nucléaire comme pilier clé du mix électrique européen. Technologie décarbonée, dense en énergie et pilotable, le nucléaire apporte flexibilité et services essentiels au système électrique — inertie, stabilité de fréquence et régulation de tension — tout en contribuant à la stabilité des prix, à la souveraineté énergétique et à la réduction des coûts du système et des factures pour les consommateurs.
Renforcer la coordination entre États membres, afin d’exploiter pleinement les complémentarités entre pays, optimiser les investissements et réduire les coûts du système énergétique, en considérant le système électrique dans sa globalité pour construire des mix équilibrés, cohérents et résilients.
Chiffres clés du scénario
À horizon 2050, le scénario Net Zero démontre que l’électrification renforce durablement l’Europe :
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Compétitivité
5x
L’Europe devient 5 fois plus résiliente face à un doublement des prix du gaz et du pétrole grâce à une moindre dépendance aux énergies fossiles. Cela donne de la visibilité à notre économie.
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Souveraineté
-85 %
Les importations d’énergie fossiles chutent de 85 %, libérant des ressources financières qui peuvent être investies dans l’économie locale.
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Décarbonation
0 tCO₂
L’Europe atteint 0 émission nette, via une action coordonnée sur tous les secteurs, en priorisant les leviers les plus efficaces et l’innovation.
Une trajectoire au service de l’Europe
Le scénario Net Zero 2050 actualisé d’EDF démontre qu’il est possible de concilier ambition climatique, compétitivité économique et souveraineté énergétique.
Au-delà d’un impératif environnemental, la trajectoire vers la neutralité carbone s’affirme comme un choix stratégique majeur pour l’Europe : c’est l’opportunité de renforcer sa résilience face aux chocs externes, réduire sa dépendance énergétique et créer les conditions d’une croissance durable fondée sur l’innovation et l’investissement local.
Pour aller plus loin
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Édition 2026 - Exclusivement en anglais